Will Beto O'Rourke be the governor of Texas on Feb 1st, 2023?
27
553Ṁ14k
resolved Feb 2
Resolved
NO
This market resolves to "YES" if Beto O'Rourke is the governor of Texas on midnight of Feb 1st, 2023. Close date updated to 2022-11-07 11:59 pm Mar 10, 9:57am: I updated the close date so it's the day before election day. I will still wait until Feb 1st, 2023 to resolve the market to give time for possible litigation, etc. The next governor is nominally sworn in on Jan 20th, 2023. Jun 1, 1:37pm: after some thought, with the CPMM markets it doesn't really make sense to close this question early. Won't hurt anyone who correctly predicts before the election if someone buys the probability to certainty after the election. New close date is same as resolve date. Close date updated to 2023-01-31 11:59 pm
Politics
US Politics
US 2022 Elections
US 2022 Midterms
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ131
2Ṁ35
3Ṁ32
4Ṁ14
5Ṁ5

People are also trading

Will a Democratic presidential candidate win Texas before 2033?
59% chance
Will Greg Abbott be elected president of the United States in 2028?
1% chance
Who will win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election?
Who will become the next governor of Texas after Greg Abbott?
Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2028 presidential election?
13% chance
Will the republican party win the 2026 texas gubernatorial election?
82% chance
Will Texas elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in any election through 2032?
40% chance
Will the Democrats win any statewide election in Texas by the end of 2030?
66% chance
Will Texas elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in any election through 2038?
62% chance
Will a Democrat win Texas for President by 2050?
75% chance
Sort by:
predictedNO

He wasn't.

trust 538 much more than Cook
three weeks after Uvalde, race is at 5 points to Abbott - should still revert somewhat but it's good numbers for O'Rourke
(for anyone wondering about all the bets without the probability changing, I'm experimenting with injecting/withdrawing liquidity)
Similar https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/republicans-will-win-the-2022-texas
Cook says "Likely Republican", not "Solid Republican".

People are also trading

Will a Democratic presidential candidate win Texas before 2033?
59% chance
Will Greg Abbott be elected president of the United States in 2028?
1% chance
Who will win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election?
Who will become the next governor of Texas after Greg Abbott?
Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2028 presidential election?
13% chance
Will the republican party win the 2026 texas gubernatorial election?
82% chance
Will Texas elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in any election through 2032?
40% chance
Will the Democrats win any statewide election in Texas by the end of 2030?
66% chance
Will Texas elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in any election through 2038?
62% chance
Will a Democrat win Texas for President by 2050?
75% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy