Will Beto O'Rourke be the governor of Texas on Feb 1st, 2023?
27
18
553
resolved Feb 2
Resolved
NO
This market resolves to "YES" if Beto O'Rourke is the governor of Texas on midnight of Feb 1st, 2023. Close date updated to 2022-11-07 11:59 pm Mar 10, 9:57am: I updated the close date so it's the day before election day. I will still wait until Feb 1st, 2023 to resolve the market to give time for possible litigation, etc. The next governor is nominally sworn in on Jan 20th, 2023. Jun 1, 1:37pm: after some thought, with the CPMM markets it doesn't really make sense to close this question early. Won't hurt anyone who correctly predicts before the election if someone buys the probability to certainty after the election. New close date is same as resolve date. Close date updated to 2023-01-31 11:59 pm
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predicted NO

He wasn't.

sold Ṁ31 of YES
trust 538 much more than Cook
bought Ṁ10 of YES
three weeks after Uvalde, race is at 5 points to Abbott - should still revert somewhat but it's good numbers for O'Rourke
sold Ṁ67 of NO
(for anyone wondering about all the bets without the probability changing, I'm experimenting with injecting/withdrawing liquidity)
bought Ṁ4 of YES
Cook says "Likely Republican", not "Solid Republican".

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