Will Beto O'Rourke be the governor of Texas on Feb 1st, 2023?
Will Beto O'Rourke be the governor of Texas on Feb 1st, 2023?
27
553Ṁ14kresolved Feb 2
Resolved
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This market resolves to "YES" if Beto O'Rourke is the governor of Texas on midnight of Feb 1st, 2023.
Close date updated to 2022-11-07 11:59 pm
Mar 10, 9:57am: I updated the close date so it's the day before election day. I will still wait until Feb 1st, 2023 to resolve the market to give time for possible litigation, etc. The next governor is nominally sworn in on Jan 20th, 2023.
Jun 1, 1:37pm: after some thought, with the CPMM markets it doesn't really make sense to close this question early. Won't hurt anyone who correctly predicts before the election if someone buys the probability to certainty after the election. New close date is same as resolve date.
Close date updated to 2023-01-31 11:59 pm
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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