Who will sit in Dianne Feinstein's US Senate seat starting in 2025? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 2, 2025

Who will sit in Dianne Feinstein's US Senate seat starting in 2025?

Resolves to whoever is sworn as US Senator from California, in 2025, in the seat currently occupied by Dianne Feinstein.

Duplicate answers will be ignored in favor of the older answer.

Creator betting policy: I will bet on this market as with any other market.

Close date updated to 2025-01-01 11:59 pm

Jan 26, 10:10pm: ~~Who will sit in Dianne Feinstein's US Senate seat starting in 2024?~~ → Who will sit in Dianne Feinstein's US Senate seat starting in 2025?

^ updated so question reflects original intent. If this caused anyone to lose mana somehow, let me know and I'll tip it back.

Adam Schiff

26%

Katie Porter

25%

Ro Khanna

22%

Barbara Lee

18%

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Matt P answered

Dianne Feinstein

Matt P answered

Adam Schiff

"Schiff kicks off California Senate bid" https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/26/adam-schiff-california-senate-bid-00079622

Mikebought Ṁ10 of Barbara Lee

Should the close date for this be Jan 4, 2025?

J. F. Jurchenbought Ṁ15 of Dianne Feinstein

good point, buying shares of Dianne Feinstein

Jackbought Ṁ25 of Adam Schiff

@jfjurchen Reading the resolution criteria, it should not resolve to Dianne Feinstein unless she is reelected to another term.

@jack I thought the winner of the 2024 Senate election is sworn in on January 3, 2025?

Market description says

Resolves to whoever is sworn as US Senator from California, in 2024, in the seat currently occupied by Dianne Feinstein.

J. F. Jurchensold Ṁ16 of Dianne Feinstein

@MCMillennium My interpretation is that this market will probably resolve N/A, unless for some reason somebody gets sworn in in 2024.

I'd bet 99% that this was a mistake.

@MattP Seems like there's an error in this market - 2024 is election year but 2025 is the start of the term.

@jack yep, completely my mistake. Intent was the start of the 2025 term elected in 2024. I thiiink since the only major effects thus far have been people assuming it will most likely resolve N/A, it doesn't seem crazy to just edit.

@MattP if anyone has an issue with my making this edit and can explain how they lost mana though originally betting under the originally stated criteria, let me know how and how much and I'll tip it back.

Nico D sold Ṁ5 Ro Khanna from 24% to 22%

DismalScientist sold Ṁ33 Adam Schiff from 35% to 26%

Gabrielle bought Ṁ20 Barbara Lee from 8% to 16%

Nico D sold Ṁ4 Katie Porter from 24% to 23%

klaus roth sold Ṁ2 Dianne Feinstein from 1.9% to 0.8%

Nico D bought Ṁ5 Ro Khanna from 20% to 22%

Nico D bought Ṁ5 Katie Porter from 23% to 25%

Mike sold Ṁ4 Dianne Feinstein from 4% to 2.0%

DismalScientist bought Ṁ35 Adam Schiff from 28% to 38%

ZanyEconomist bought Ṁ5 Adam Schiff from 26% to 28%

Matt P bought Ṁ20 Ro Khanna from 17% to 24%

Matt P bought Ṁ25 Katie Porter from 20% to 30%

J. F. Jurchen sold Ṁ16 Dianne Feinstein from 13% to 6%

Jack bought Ṁ25 Adam Schiff from 20% to 30%

Jack bought Ṁ25 Adam Schiff from 9% to 20%

Nico D sold Ṁ4 Katie Porter from 26% to 24%

Mike bought Ṁ10 Dianne Feinstein from 12% to 17%

J. F. Jurchen bought Ṁ15 Dianne Feinstein from 4% to 12%

Nico D bought Ṁ5 Katie Porter from 28% to 30%

Lisa Marsh bought Ṁ10 Adam Schiff from 5% to 10%

Mike bought Ṁ10 Barbara Lee from 13% to 18%

Mike bought Ṁ10 Barbara Lee from 7% to 13%

Mike bought Ṁ5 Adam Schiff from 2% to 5%

Mike bought Ṁ10 Barbara Lee from 0.6% to 7%

Nico D bought Ṁ25 Katie Porter from 25% to 38%

Gabrielle bought Ṁ10 Katie Porter from 19% to 25%

klaus roth bought Ṁ5 Dianne Feinstein from 3% to 7%

J. F. Jurchen bought Ṁ1 Barbara Lee from 0.0% to 0.8%

J. F. Jurchen bought Ṁ1 Libby Shaaf from 0.0% to 0.8%

Lisa Marsh bought Ṁ1 Ricardo Lara from 0.0% to 0.8%

Lisa Marsh bought Ṁ1 Sheila Kuehl from 0.0% to 0.8%

Lisa Marsh bought Ṁ1 Eleni Kounalakis from 0.0% to 0.8%

Lisa Marsh bought Ṁ1 Lindsey Horvath from 0.0% to 0.8%

Lisa Marsh bought Ṁ1 Janice Hahn from 0.0% to 0.8%

Lisa Marsh bought Ṁ1 Todd Gloria from 0.0% to 0.8%

Lisa Marsh bought Ṁ1 Eric Garcetti from 0.0% to 0.8%

Lisa Marsh bought Ṁ1 London Breed from 0.0% to 0.8%

Lisa Marsh bought Ṁ1 Rob Bonta from 0.0% to 0.8%

Lisa Marsh bought Ṁ1 Xavier Becerra from 0.0% to 0.8%

Matt P bought Ṁ5 Katie Porter from 19% to 22%

Matt P bought Ṁ40 Ro Khanna from 35% to 55%

Matt P bought Ṁ5 Dianne Feinstein from 0.0% to 5%

Matt P bought Ṁ5 Adam Schiff from 0.0% to 5%

Matt P bought Ṁ30 Katie Porter from 0.0% to 31%

Matt P bought Ṁ50 Ro Khanna from 0.0% to 56%

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