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MANIFOLD
Do you like to bet on free response markets, in their current implementation?
16
Ṁ120Ṁ848
resolved Jun 19
Resolved
NO
Vote in the comments! I will *only* count votes in which an all-caps YES or NO is the *first* word in the top-level comment (and will count the newest vote if the same user votes multiple times). This question resolves to YES if the majority of votes by market close are YES, NO if the majority of votes are NO, and 50% PROB if it is a tie. If something major about free response markets changes before market close, I will resolve this early with the vote total before the change was made (to the best of my ability). Jun 5, 2:17pm: and to be 100% clear, I am talking about the free response type of question, in which there are multiple possible answers - not talking about the daily free liquidity markets. Jun 7, 11:06am: point of clarity, I should've titled the market "do Manifold users like to bet on..." rather than "do you like to bet on...", since the prediction market proper is to predict the result of the poll (and the poll result is not directly affected by the prediction market's prediction). Will do that next time.
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predictedNO
My count is 6 YES, 12 NO (or only 11 if I get really pedantic about the market description criteria and don't count Bolton's vote since it's not all caps). I'm very confident NO is the majority winner, and since I am resolving to the majority (rather than proportionally) I'm not gonna leave it open for a double check since the margin is so high - going ahead and resolving NO. Thanks for the opinions, y'all!
NO
predictedNO
NO I find it too difficult to reason about market returns.
YES. There are certainly problems with them though
NO
No
I would prefer if they were implemented as a collection of YES-NO markets for the different outcomes, so I could short overpriced outcomes. Might also be simpler on the backend as well.
predictedNO
NO (might as well put my own cards on the table, here) I do bet on them sometimes, but I'm never really expecting to make much if any money due to the non-fixed payouts, general funkiness of most free response markets, and my own preference for binary YES/NO questions. I expect if payouts were fixed and there were some measures in place to mitigate trolling I'd change my answer to YES.
NO
predictedYES
YES but it could be a lot better. E.g. I think switching to a yes/no CFMM market on each answer, or something along those lines that also ties the bucket probabilities together, would be better.
NO Oh I’m utterly messing this comment thing up. Need to read rules more carefully.
NO. There’s no standard for how the market creators are going to deal with the random (probably trolly) answers people are going to make. We’d be better off only allowing the market creators to add or approve new options.
predictedNO
On the other hand, I do like that you can ask open-ended questions like "why do I have lung problems" or "What will solve this problem" etc
@Kronopath That's too restrictive but market creators having the ability to ban spammers is a must.
I’ll point out the word “approve” I used above. I think there’s room for people to suggest new options in a market, but maybe allow market creators to require approval before randos officially bet on new options.
NO. I don't understand how the math works so I don't like to bet.
I usually don’t bet on them in hopes of much profit; more of a “for the memes”/actual feedback mentality
NO
They're OK.
YES, which makes the problems all the more frustrating.
YES. Manifolders and Manifolk. Search your hearts. Then, search your betting history. Surely you will see at least a few public bets on free markets. So, you do like betting on free response markets, and you should vote YES.
@MartinRandall they could have made a few but been unhappy about it. *shrug*
predictedNO
(Note that this market is not resolved by proportionality but by majority)
@JoyVoid the only fun way. :)
NO