Will food prices rise by 15% or more after mass deportations?
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Plus
6
Ṁ375
2026
39%
chance

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The Mark My Words series takes actionable and popular posts from the Mark My Words subreddit and turns them into a prediction market. Hope you enjoy the format!

https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1e89fyk/mmw_the_gops_mass_deportations_will_devastate_the/

Resolution Criteria:

  1. The market will resolve as "Yes" if:

    • A mass deportation policy targeting undocumented immigrants is officially implemented by the U.S. government AND

    • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food shows an increase of 15% or more within 12 months of the policy's implementation date

  2. The market will resolve as "No" if:

    • No mass deportation policy is implemented by December 31, 2025, OR

    • A mass deportation policy is implemented, but the CPI for food does not increase by 15% or more within 12 months of implementation

  3. Implementation of a mass deportation policy is defined as:

    • An official executive order or enacted legislation that aims to deport at least 1 million undocumented immigrants within a 12-month period

  4. The CPI for food will be measured using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' official data

  5. The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:

    • A mass deportation policy is announced but not implemented due to legal challenges or other factors

    • Major external events (e.g., global food crisis, war) significantly impact food prices independently of immigration policy

Resolution Sources:

  • Official U.S. government announcements and legislation

  • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data

  • Reports from reputable economic analysis firms

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Does it count if the deportations also target documented immigrants?

@BrunoParga It will necessarily also include many other events. If you think that will coincide with any policy deporting millions of undocumented, then you can factor that into your prediction.

> An official executive order or enacted legislation that aims to deport at least 1 million undocumented immigrants within a 12-month period

Will make this market "active" and then we check the CPI for food 12 months after its implementation has finished.

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