Will an AI-generated voice be used in a televised political advertisement for any U.S. election in 2024?
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Plus
3
Ṁ255
2026
43%
chance

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https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1fhw7oz/mmw_someone_in_the_republican_camp_will_use_ai/

Resolution Criteria:

  1. The market will resolve as "Yes" if:

    • A political advertisement using an AI-generated voice is broadcast on television in the United States

    • The advertisement is for any political campaign or election at the local, state, or federal level

    • The ad airs at least once on a television broadcast channel before or on November 5, 2024 (Election Day)

    • Evidence of such an ad is posted in the comments section of this market before December 31, 2025

  2. The market will resolve as "No" if:

    • No evidence of such an advertisement is posted in the comments by December 31, 2025

  3. For the purpose of this market:

    • "AI-generated voice" refers to any voice created or significantly altered using artificial intelligence or machine learning technologies

    • The AI-generated voice must be a significant part of the advertisement, not just background or incidental use

  4. Evidence can include:

    • Links to reputable news sources reporting on the ad

    • Video footage of the ad with clear indication of when and where it aired

    • Statements from television networks, local stations, or political campaigns confirming the use of AI-generated voices

  5. The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:

    • There is significant dispute or ambiguity about whether a voice in a submitted ad is AI-generated

Additional Notes:

  • The market will resolve on December 31, 2025

  • Due to the vast number of political ads, the market creator cannot guarantee awareness of all ads that may have aired

  • It is the responsibility of market participants to provide evidence in the comments for a "Yes" resolution

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opened a Ṁ350 NO at 43% order

Just to be clear, it has to be on TV, correct? It can't be an ad somebody finds on a YouTube pre-reel ad slot or somewhere on TikTok?

This will inherently come with the burden of proving when and where it aired on TV.

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