꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂
https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1epe67x/mmw_if_djt_loses_the_2024_election_he_will/
Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve as "Yes" if:
Donald Trump loses the 2024 U.S. Presidential election AND
Trump leaves the United States and takes up residence in a country without an extradition treaty with the U.S. by December 31, 2025
His residence in that country is confirmed by credible news sources or official statements
The market will resolve as "No" if:
Trump loses the election but remains in the U.S. through December 31, 2025 OR
Trump leaves the U.S. but resides in a country with an extradition treaty
The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:
Trump wins the 2024 U.S. Presidential election
The 2024 U.S. Presidential election results are not officially certified by December 31, 2024
Trump passes away before December 31, 2025
Resolution Sources:
Official U.S. election results
Reputable international news organizations
Official statements from foreign governments or U.S. authorities
Closing Date:
This market will close for trading on December 31, 2025, or when credible evidence of Trump's residence in a non-extradition country is confirmed, whichever comes first.Additional Notes:
"Country without a U.S. extradition treaty" refers to nations that do not have a formal agreement with the United States for the extradition of individuals facing criminal charges
Temporary travel or short-term stays in foreign countries do not qualify as "taking up residence"
The specific country of residence is not relevant to the resolution, only that it lacks an extradition treaty with the U.S.
1,000People are also trading
Interesting that since I changed the criteria to where Trump winning the 2024 election counts as N/A rather than "No" that no one has sold any of their "No" shares, and only one person has bought "Yes" at my limit order.
After changing the criteria I added a very hefty limit above the current percent, to accommodate anyone who had bought "No" shares because of the oversight over having Trump's victory count as a "No".
Anyway i'll leave the limit, but I think i've done enough diligence with that limit order and the time given to sell "No" shares to make this a valid market still.
@DavidFWatson I want to be even clearer, if Trump wins, I'm going to ask Admins to N/A based on the poor naming choice for the title. I may not succeed, but I'll try.
@DavidFWatson Just fixed it, right you are, and very sorry for the confusion.
Updated:
> The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:
Trump wins the 2024 U.S. Presidential election
The 2024 U.S. Presidential election results are not officially certified by December 31, 2024
Trump passes away before December 31, 2025
Given the resolution criteria, why isn't the title "Will Trump lose the election and flee to a country without a U.S. extradition treaty by Dec. 2025?"?
I'm new here so I might be saying something stupid, but it seems to me that if what you want to measure is the conditional probability of Trump fleeing given that he loses, then it should resolve to invalid, and not to "No", if he wins.
EDIT: I see this has been fixed now, great.