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MANIFOLD
What day will I next log on to manifold markets in 2026*? See description.
1
Ṁ100Ṁ20
2027
41%
chance

*This market will not resolve prior to July 27th, 2026 (central time).

This market resolves to a percentage equal to 3 times the day of the month on which I first open manifold markets (phone app or website) in 2026, on or after July 27th. For example, if I open manifold markets on July 28th, this market would resolve to 28 * 3 = 84%. Or, if I open it on August 1st, this market would resolve to 3%.

If I DON'T log into manifold markets in 2026 on or after July 27th, this market resolves to NO. Betting is planned to close on January 1st, 2027 at 12PM central time at the latest.

I will not resolve this market according to a previous day. So, if I log into manifold markets at 11:59PM on August 31st but the time is 12:00AM on September 1st by the time I open up the market to resolve it, I will resolve the market to 3%. This is to ensure that bets can always be based on the current day.

For some context: I was active on manifold markets 4 years ago (over a span of months to a year), 5 months ago (over the span of a couple of weeks), and today, with long gaps of not opening manifold markets in between. I do actively read the manifold blog emails, but I don't count that as logging into to manifold markets.

If daylight savings time laws change before this market resolves, I will do my best to resolve according to the most up-to-date laws.

I will not participate in this market except to buy shares of 50% prior to July 27th, 2026.

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