Is one-click-betting good?
33
13
Ṁ123
resolved Jun 8
Resolved
NO
The devil is in the details and the details can contradict the question title. This question resolves to YES if Manifold either: removes click-to-vote, lets you review the exact terms before voting (without any user input other than clicking on the vote button), or rearranges the card view so the terms are displayed on the front page... by 8th June 2022. This question resolves to NO if Manifold doesn't do any of the above by 8th June 2022. Jun 1, 12:58pm: To clarify: The intention is to provide a test case which catches people out, by getting them to bet on a title which is contradicted by the description! Jun 3, 10:34am: I voted YES on https://manifold.markets/SG/poll-should-we-keep-the-quickbet-ar#3WozVJfLNfECKk074JYa — I think the concept is great, and could use a little bit of fine-tuning. Jun 9, 7:00am: I placed a one-click bet on the homepage without any further details showing — resolving this as NO.
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bought Ṁ50 of NO
I was surprised at the reported % chance, and clicked to find out why, and read the description. That was sufficient IMO
What is click to vote?
bought Ṁ15 of YES
Oh, I see… I just tried it out on mobile and lost M$2. :( so I am buying yes out of slight grumpiness
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Seems unnecessary to change this. It'll always be possible for authors to resolve questions incorrectly, write intentionally misleading descriptions, change their criteria last minute, or do other things to trick the traders into losing money. I don't see this being a big problem with honest market-creators.
Is there a way to report misleading titles/etc?
predicted NO
@Angela Not currently. And I doubt that will be added, since Manifold doesn't want to be in charge of enforcing correct resolution, the idea of the site is that they let users do that. They have been thinking about a reputation system, and that could result in a penalty for people using misleading titles.
predicted NO
@Angela for now it seems we just have to remember not to trust @MathiasFoster
@Jjmmm until we get a reputation system, then it will be obvious!
predicted NO
Hrm, if we show the Market description on the card view on hover, for example, would that count as "rearranging the card view" for this market?
@Austin yes, I think so... it's something that would let the bettor easily investigate further before betting.
predicted YES
@Austin hover would not be enough for mobile, although I would count it as being a change that warrants this market resolving to yes.
@stone I think hover would be enough for desktop, but not for mobile. If a user can see or understand the details without any actions on their part other than clicking the up/down button, then this market will resolve to YES. On desktop, moving the mouse to the button would reveal the details. On mobile, it wouldn't work that way (unless the Manifold team is feeling particularly inventive with UI!).
predicted NO
@MathiasFoster So if Austin's suggestion gets implemented such that it's effectively a "yes" for desktop and a "no" for mobile, how does this market resolve?
@IsaacKing this will resolve as NO — because there would still users who are betting and not seeing the market details.
bought Ṁ10 of NO
I one-click bet NO

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