Poll: Should we keep the quick-bet arrows?
44
267
Ṁ117
resolved Jun 5
Resolved
YES
Write "YES" or "NO" in the comments to cast your vote on whether you think Manifold should keep its current one-click betting interface using up- and down- arrows. (If you like the current implementation or think we're only a few tweaks away from this being a good experience, vote YES, otherwise vote NO.) This market will resolve YES if a majority of the votes are YES; NO if a majority are NO within a week of the creation of this question. (In the case of a tie, I will resolve PROB at 50%.)
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sold Ṁ11 of NO
YES
bought Ṁ5 of NO
NO at least, bad for mobile (which I mostly use) i don’t think I’ve really intentionally bet with them, but I’ve accidentally clicked a bunch of times. if switched to >1 click on mobile, then could be good?
predicted YES
YES
bought Ṁ300 of YES
YES
bought Ṁ10 of NO
NO. I didn't even realize they were clickable until now... I don't like them.
predicted NO
10/23 NOs right now, by the way.
predicted NO
@horse just need 2 yes votes to switch to no...
NO. I'm open to being convinced but I just don't see the point, I would never use them, I always want to look more closely at what people are saying in any comments, in the market description, look carefully at how its been traded so far and put a specific amount in rather than be encouraged to put in 10 one way or the other without giving it sufficient thought. I would think that we wouldn't want to encourage people to act in a more uniform and less thoughtful manner. It is maybe a tad more convenient than not having it, but really, not very much is it? I seem to be in the minority here though
bought Ṁ97 of YES
YES. Suggestion: A little "undo" bubble popping up for 5 seconds in the lower right corner after a trade via arrows. I've already accidentally bought.
bought Ṁ5 of NO
NO Changing my vote to NO to try to manipulate the market. Got to be a 10% chance of a few others doing the same.
@MartinRandall i suppose this is why PROB resolution is a bit better, it wouldn't settle at absurdly high percentage (though market manipulation would persist)
predicted NO
@JoyVoid I think PROB is better mostly because we don't just care about who has the majority, we care about how strong the consensus is in either direction.
predicted YES
That might be what we care about, but it's a lot less interesting to bet on IMO.
predicted NO
Yeah, I think betting on the majority is more interesting if the poll is close, because it amplifies the result. IMO the key thing is zooming in on the range of likely outcomes (as I discussed in https://manifold.markets/jack/how-should-manifold-encourage-tradi). If the poll is somewhere in the 60-80% range, then you can make it more attractive to bet on by mapping 60 to NO and 80 to YES. You could also ask the binary form of this as "Will the poll result be > 70%" but I think that's less informative.
predicted NO
But that requires some prior knowledge of the range of likely poll outcomes. If you don't really know, which is the more common case, then there's a pretty high chance that the outcome will be strongly tilted towards YES or towards NO, and then a numeric/PROB market is much better than a majority-wins market.
predicted YES
Perhaps some kind of slider could be used for the numeric markets. Horizontally, the slider along the bottom of the card. Or, perhaps if it's a vertical slider it could be on the right, though there's much less room.
bought Ṁ50 of YES
YES, absolutely. They might need some tweaks here and there, but the idea is great. Very intuitive and dramatically reduces friction- allows people to place a bet like they'd like a Tweet: read, click, scroll past.
predicted YES
YES
YES - I think the exact mechanism should evolve beyond a simple M$10 per press (I like the idea of moving up and down 1% each time) but it's good as-is
YES I like that it gives a cannonical amount for "I have a mild opinion on the topic/keep me posted". Needs a little tweaking but works well as it is.
YES, but add undo if done in the last min or something like that. Avoid abuse by disabling undo option if clicked in the same direction two times in a row.
predicted NO
NO, the reason I don't bet on more markets isn't the trivial inconvenience of clicking through the UI, it's that I don't think I have alpha on most markets
bought Ṁ10 of NO
Needs help to avoid misclicks
YES, with tweaks
Reducing accidental clicks. Display how much has already been bet. More prominent visual confirmation of bet, with an interval during which you can undo or edit the bet amount And maybe editing uses a slider UI instead of a text box, which shows both amount and adjusted probablity since some people bet amount centric and some prob centric.

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