This should probably be tracking the lk-99 market more closely

Not me: a deep analysis. But remember, past performance is no guarantee, etc, etc.

This compares favorably to the time I bought m5000 NO on a market after it had already met the criteria for YES.

Eliezer should place a large NO bet in this market to hedge any losses.

@IsaacKing if you are still refining your anime supervillain voice, consider "Show me your hope, that I may destroy it".

@MartinRandall Oh I got nothing on Eliezer. I've been accused of a lot, but haven't yet been accused of trying to take over a small country, let alone the world.

Do we know how much he’s already lost?

@NicoDelon It's on his profile.

@MartinRandall Of course. Sorry, I meant realized losses, if that makes any sense (how much mana he’s lost just buying and selling; I don’t think the figure we see is just that since it also include unrealized profits/losses).

@NicoDelon Yes, that requires a bit of math. From his profile:

• He has 56,193 NO with a cost basis of m40,000

• The market is currently ~30%, so his NO is valued at ~m39,335, for a ~m665 loss

• He has a ~m9,800 loss on the market

• So he has realized losses of ~m9,000

I also have realized losses, so he is in excellent company.

@MartinRandall You did more than I expected you to. Much appreciated!

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EzSH9698DhBsXAcYY/my-current-lk99-questions

My current LK99 questions — LessWrong

So this morning I thought to myself, “Okay, now I will actually try to study the LK99 question, instead of betting based on nontechnical priors and m…

I learn the larger lesson: It's important not to introduce more complicated other incentives that potentially push away from the epistemic incentives on prediction markets, in the course of trying to get rid of current possible incentive-gotchas. The suggestion I got that I should bet my referral mana on my existing position, to meet my expressed desire to make sure I didn't "win either way", initially seemed to me just; and it was simple and I could do it immediately, so I did that; but actually any departure from the purity of "only ever bet mana in a way that solely reflects your belief" is not healthy.

We are so back

If it resolves no and he does nothing, then he should.

@Joshua Yes, but he's asking questions and may intend to trade further.

Guess I'll hope he buys more no 😅