Will partial resolution of yes/no markets be supported by 2022-11-01?
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178Ṁ835resolved Nov 1
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This market resolves Yes if Manifold adds a feature to support partial resolution of yes/no markets by close. It resolves No if not.
Suppose there is a market "How many times will Donald Trump tweet in 2023?", which resolves to 0 if there are no tweets, 100 if there are 100+ tweets, 50 if there are 50 tweets, and so forth. When the market opens we know it will resolve between 0 and 100. If Trump tweets 50 times in August then we learn that it will resolve between 50 and 100.
Partial resolution would allow the market creator/resolver to set the minimum resolution to 50% and immediately pay out 50% of "No" shares. The market will continue to be open for trading in the 50-100% range. No doubt this will take some fancy math.
If there was a market for "what proportion of the Spice Girls will be alive in 2050?", then if one of the Spice Girls died, this could be partially resolved, setting the maximum to 80%. So we could have partial resolution in both directions. Though perhaps not both at once, depending on how hard the math is.
An example market that could be partially resolved to 50-100%: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-existing-markets-be-converted
Benefits: improves prediction accuracy, reduces fear of improper resolution.
Costs: user confusion, opportunity cost.
Unknowns: how to handle liquidity, how to handle N/A resolution.
Small print: I will not trade in this market. I will handle edge cases according to my best judgment, feel free to ask resolution questions in comments.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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