Will any of the Time People of the Year be assassinated in 2023?
17
38
300
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves Yes if a Time Person of the Year is assassinated. For joint winners it resolved Yes if either of them are assassinated.

Group winners (eg "the guardians") are not included. Inanimate objects (eg "the endangered Earth") are not included.

If someone dies in mysterious circumstances I will resolve based on my best judgement and may resolve to a probability.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ80
2Ṁ51
3Ṁ23
4Ṁ11
5Ṁ4
Sort by:
bought Ṁ400 of NO

The base rate is very low. I suspect a large chunk of the probability comes from the estimated 70% chance of Zelensky being named the next Time Person of the Year, and the estimated ~3-5% chance of him dying in the next year, based on the following markets

predicted NO

Oh and I forgot that Putin is also a Time Person of the Year.