Resolves YES if Manifold loans any money based in part on the fire sale value of a user's shares. Resolves NO at market close otherwise.
Currently loans are based on the minimum of market value and sum-of-purchases-minus-sales. Consider this market:
I bought 100 YES shares at 10% for m10
I sold 100 YES shares at 50% for m50
I bought 400 NO shares at 90% for m40
The market goes to 50%.
Now my market value is m200, but my sum-of-purchases-minus-sales is zero, so I get no loans. The system has the effect of discouraging trading by the traders who have been the most right in the past.
Instead, in a situation like this, I think the trader should at least get loans based on the "fire sale value" of their loans. That is, if they sold all the shares immediately to the AMM and whatever limit orders exist, how much mana would they get? This is less than the market value due to slippage. But it is larger than zero, particularly for small traders.
Some subtleties that I like which don't impact resolution.
Yes, the fire sale value should include a user's own limit orders. To get loans at a value, there must be evidence that the assets have that value. An unfilled limit order is such evidence.
Users should be able to see the fire sale value so they understand what is going on.
The loan amount should be calculated at a random time during the day, different for each user, and hidden. This prevents users from creating limit orders just before pressing the "get loans" button.