This market offers credit default swaps (CDSs) on some of the richest and most influential Manifold users.

Each answer represents a CDS for a specific borrower or loan.

• A CDS resolves Yes if the borrower is 45 days late on a loan payment due by the end of 2030.

• If the creditor grants an extension or forgives the loan, it will not be considered late.

By betting:

• “Yes”, you’re predicting that the borrower will default on at least one loan by the end of 2030.

• “No”, you’re taking the (more likely) position that they will not default by then.

I’ll be monitoring most of the people in the market fairly closely, but if you believe someone has defaulted on a loan, feel free to contact me with any evidence you have.

If you’d like to suggest someone to be added to the market, just let me kno