This market is about credible reporting of the aircraft arriving in Ukraine AND being under control of the Ukrainian army/state. Market will resolve YES once such reports are made public, otherwise it resolves to NO on 1st November 2024. If there are rumours/uncofirmed reports of jets arriving arround the close date, I will wait with resolution until it is clear whether the jets actually arrived before close date.
While fighter jets are the most likely to be delivered first, any non-russian/soviet manned fixed-wing aircraft with jet propulsion that can serve a primarily combat role will count (e.g. transport aircraft like C-40 won't count, jet-propelled bomber aircraft like B-52 would count, combat capable jets that are however mostly used as trainers like Aero L-159 would count). Delivery of Russian/soviet designs (e.g. Migs from Slovakia) will not count.
A market on actualy type being announced:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ194 | |
| 2 | Ṁ117 | |
| 3 | Ṁ86 | |
| 4 | Ṁ45 | |
| 5 | Ṁ42 |
Resolves YES
Almost certainly a YES, closing now. I will look through other sources to make sure the criteria are met, but this seems extremely likely (the specific link you shared focuses on what Zelenskyi said, but the resolution requires reporting about facts, not somebody's claims. E.g. there's no explicit confirmation the location they were seeing the jets at is in Ukraine)
OK, Economist seems to directly claim the arrival (https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/08/04/how-much-of-a-difference-will-ukraines-new-f-16s-make paywalled, so can't read details), but given there seems to be broad consensus that the F-16s are there (backed by statements by representatives of the countries sending the planes), I think it is safe to resolve YES.