This market is about official announcement by a head of state, minister of defence or a comparable figure able to make promises on arms export/delivery.
This market is conditional on any delivery being announced. If no combat aircraft delivery is announced by Jan 31st, 2024 this market resolves to NA.
While fighter jets are the most likely to be announced first, any non-russian/soviet aircraft with jet propulsion that can serve a primarily combat role will count (e.g. transport aircraft like C-40 won't count, jet-propelled bomber aircraft like B-52 would count, combat capable jets that are however mostly used as trainers like Aero L-159 would count). Delivery of Russian/soviet designs (e.g. Migs considered from Slovakia) will not count. (This section edited on 2023-30-01 to clarify the L-159 case)
Only aircraft type matters, not actual version (e.g. F-16 rather than F-16C, see example answers already given)
Some markets on actual delivery:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ64 | |
| 2 | Ṁ60 | |
| 3 | Ṁ39 | |
| 4 | Ṁ25 | |
| 5 | Ṁ22 |
People are also trading
Resolving based on the official statement: https://www.government.nl/documents/diplomatic-statements/2023/08/20/statement-on-strengthening-of-the-ukrainian-air-force---donation-of-f16
Arb: F-16 in this market should be strictly larger than https://manifold.markets/jack/will-any-country-announce-a-commitm
