Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, following the 2025 Dutch general election, the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) secures more seats in the House of Representatives than the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). Official election results published by the Electoral Council of the Netherlands will serve as the definitive source for resolution.

Background

In the 2023 Dutch general election, the VVD obtained 24 seats, while the CDA secured 5 seats. Recent polling indicates a shift in voter support. As of December 2024, the CDA is projected to win between 11 and 15 seats, showing a significant increase. Conversely, the VVD is polling between 21 and 25 seats, suggesting a slight decline. (nltimes.nl)

Considerations

The CDA's recent gains are primarily attributed to the decline of the New Social Contract (NSC) party, whose support has dwindled from 20 seats to between zero and three seats in current polls. (nltimes.nl) This redistribution of voter support could influence the CDA's standing relative to the VVD in the upcoming election.