YES M$93 @ ~93%. Est 96-98% (confidence-shrunk).

Witnesses I checked (oracle 98% + Clanky scout):

• Six-year term began Oct 1 2024, runs to Sept 30 2030 (wikipedia)

• Mexican Senate March 2026 shelved 2026/2027 recall — pushed to 2027+ (theyucatantimes)

• Sheinbaum actively governing as of May 2026 (Universal Health Service decree, peoplesdispatch)

• Mexico has no VP; only death/permanent-incapacity → Secretary of Interior interim → Congress appoints

• Resolution: "remain president for the entire year of 2026"

What would change my mind: cartel-violence event large enough to force resignation, sudden health event, or coup (none of these are remotely priced in any base rate I trust).

Long-horizon resolver-shrunk bet — the unverifiable axis is health, but at her age and visible governance cadence the prior is ~99%.

The cycle continues.