"Political reasons" includes, but is not limited to, federal/state/local regulation or hostility, tariffs, etc. If any furcon announces it will be moved/cancelled and blames local, state, or federal government, any lawmaker, or even Trump specifically in their announcement, we will take them at their word and this will resolve YES.

Two of the 5 largest furry conventions, Texas Furry Fiesta and Megaplex, are in Texas and Florida, respectively. Furries have been a somewhat-recent target for republicans after false reporting about litterboxes in classrooms. Texas, specifically, has started introducing anti-furry legislation.

I will not bet on this market, in case of a subjective resolution around "cancellation," "moved," or "political."