Two planes have crashed in the last week. Will there be another plane crash in US airspace in February?
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Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): General Aviation Coverage:
All types of general aviation are included, not just commercial flights.
Definition of Plane Crash:
A crash is defined as a situation where a plane collides with something (ground, plane, building, etc.) that it shouldn't.
The plane is unable to successfully make an emergency landing.
Clarifications on Accidents:
It is not based solely on fatalities or injuries. For example, an incident like Singapore Airlines Flight 321 would not count, whereas the 2021 Houston MD-87 crash would, even if there were no fatalities.
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@traders This market's resolution was a bit too immediate for what I was hoping for. Sorry about that! I've started another market with what I hope are more resilient criteria.
@traders This is undeniably a crash, unfortunately. I gotta figure out more interesting resolution criteria next time. https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2025/02/01/small-plane-runs-off-palo-alto-airport-runway/
Relevant thread in the related market with peoples' thoughts around resolution criteria, along with a potential accident that relates to this market: https://manifold.markets/Marnix/will-another-plane-crash-in-februar?play=true#vy2ywseays9
Is all general aviation included here? And can you clarify on distinction between accident and incident? The current market rate seems far too low given what I can find from NTSB data: https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-main-public/basic-search
Even only counting fatal accidents I can't seem to find a month without one in recent history.
@MarcusM Bet on this based on the comment on the linked market saying all types of flights apply, which I imagine would also apply here: https://manifold.markets/Marnix/will-another-plane-crash-in-februar?play=true#ukxw4lpr2ur
@MarcusM Any general aviation, not just commercial flights.
I'm going to define "plane crash" here as a plane collides with something (ground, plane, building, etc.) that it shouldn't, and is unable to successfully make an emergency landing; not just anything where someone is killed or injured. For example (ignoring the fact it didn't happen in US airspace, of course), Singapore Airlines Flight 321 wouldn't count, but the 2021 Houston MD-87 crash would, despite having no fatalities.