Who will trump pardon in the first 100 days of his presidency? Resolves based on reporting, as the clemency list has been unedited. Any commutations will be resolved to 50% at market close, since he could still pardon them.

In the event that a pardon is issued for an individual not listed who is part of a group that is listed, that will resolve YES unless otherwise specified, as they've been pardoned.

All members of a group must be pardoned for a group to resolve YES. If it's obviously that group, but with a conditional tacked on (e.g., "all Jan. 6th rioters with low-level drug offenses"), it resolves to 50%, just like a commutation (as would a conditional tacked onto a commutation).

In the event that a pardon is blocked, overturned, overruled, nullified, or otherwise stopped from taking effect for any reason, it'll have no effect on the resolution of this question - it'll still resolve YES.

• Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Grant a full, complete and unconditional pardon to all other individuals convicted of offenses related to events that occurred at or near the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021

  • En masse resolves YES. Specific individuals can still resolve YES, but doesn't yet.

• Update 2025-04-29 (PST): - Pardons issued on the 100th day (final day) will still count toward resolution (AI summary of creator comment)