Who will Donald Trump pardon in his first 100 days?
102
3.7kṀ44k
resolved May 1
Resolved
YES
Jan. 6th rioters en masse
Resolved
YES
Any SPECIFIC Jan. 6th rioter (not en masse)
Resolved
YES
Ross Ulbricht
Resolved
YES
Rod Blagojevich
Resolved
YES
Anyone else (after April 20th)
Resolved
NO
Donald Trump
Resolved
NO
Elon Musk
Resolved
NO
Any directly-related family member
Resolved
NO
Any war criminal
Resolved
NO
Michael Avenatti
Resolved
NO
Hunter Biden
Resolved
NO
Anyone who has already received a pardon
Resolved
NO
No one
Resolved
NO
MTG
Resolved
NO
Matt Gaetz
Resolved
NO
Eric Adams
Resolved
NO
Tom Goldstein
Resolved
NO
Edward Snowden
Resolved
NO
Any currently serving Republican member of Congress
Resolved
NO
Any named person who died before 2025

Who will trump pardon in the first 100 days of his presidency? Resolves based on reporting, as the clemency list has been unedited. Any commutations will be resolved to 50% at market close, since he could still pardon them.

In the event that a pardon is issued for an individual not listed who is part of a group that is listed, that will resolve YES unless otherwise specified, as they've been pardoned.

All members of a group must be pardoned for a group to resolve YES. If it's obviously that group, but with a conditional tacked on (e.g., "all Jan. 6th rioters with low-level drug offenses"), it resolves to 50%, just like a commutation (as would a conditional tacked onto a commutation).

In the event that a pardon is blocked, overturned, overruled, nullified, or otherwise stopped from taking effect for any reason, it'll have no effect on the resolution of this question - it'll still resolve YES.

  • Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Grant a full, complete and unconditional pardon to all other individuals convicted of offenses related to events that occurred at or near the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021

    • En masse resolves YES. Specific individuals can still resolve YES, but doesn't yet.

  • Update 2025-04-29 (PST): - Pardons issued on the 100th day (final day) will still count toward resolution (AI summary of creator comment)

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