Who will Donald Trump pardon in his first 100 days?
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Plus
32
Ṁ2691
2025
84%
Any SPECIFIC Jan. 6th rioter (not en masse)
72%
Ross Ulbricht
58%
Jan. 6th rioters en masse
39%
Steve Bannon
37%
Any directly-related family member
31%
Donald Trump
27%
Any war criminal
25%
Elon Musk
25%
Michael Avenatti
16%
Hunter Biden

Who will trump pardon in the first 100 days of his presidency? Resolves based on https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-recipients. A commutation gets 50%.

In the event that a pardon is issued for an individual not listed who is part of a group that is listed, that will resolve YES unless otherwise specified, as they've been pardoned.

All members of a group must be pardoned for a group to resolve YES. If it's obviously that group, but with a conditional tacked on (e.g., "all Jan. 6th rioters with low-level drug offenses"), it resolves to 50%, just like a commutation (as would a conditional tacked onto a commutation).

In the event that a pardon is blocked, overturned, overruled, nullified, or otherwise stopped from taking effect for any reason, it'll have no effect on the resolution of this question - it'll still resolve YES.

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bought Ṁ10 Any SPECIFIC Jan. 6t... NO

Aren't the two rioters options meant to be mutually exclusive? How are they both at 70%?

@ProjectVictory Not necessarily - he could pardon a group of them (such as "any january 6th protestor who didn't take a plea deal") and then pick off specific ones as well (such as a posthumous pardon for Ashli Babbitt)

Hunter Biden
opened a Ṁ5 Hunter Biden YES at 5% order

@Bayesian that would be hilarious actually

@ProjectVictory it's at 16% on polymarket. wild

Is he even allowed to pardon himself?

@quadruple We don't actually know! That'll be a question for the Supreme Court if he tries it - but if he tries it, even if it fails, I'm resolving it YES

reposted

Well, it looks like Trump is going to be president again. What will he do in his first hundred days?

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