Who will Donald Trump pardon in his first 100 days?
78
3.4kṀ29k
Apr 17
16%
Any war criminal
14%
Any SPECIFIC Jan. 6th rioter (not en masse)
14%
Any named person who died before 2025
12%
Tom Goldstein
11%
Andrew Lester
10%
Any currently serving Republican member of Congress
10%
Peter Navarro
10%
Ken Paxton
9%
Steve Bannon
9%
Any directly-related family member
9%
Carlos De Oliveira
9%
George Santos
8%
Walt Nauta
6%
Julian Assange
6%
Edward Snowden
6%
Robert Menendez
6%
Eric Adams
6%
Matt Gaetz
6%
Sam Bankman-Fried
6%
Anyone who has already received a pardon

Who will trump pardon in the first 100 days of his presidency? Resolves based on reporting, as the clemency list has been unedited. Any commutations will be resolved to 50% at market close, since he could still pardon them.

In the event that a pardon is issued for an individual not listed who is part of a group that is listed, that will resolve YES unless otherwise specified, as they've been pardoned.

All members of a group must be pardoned for a group to resolve YES. If it's obviously that group, but with a conditional tacked on (e.g., "all Jan. 6th rioters with low-level drug offenses"), it resolves to 50%, just like a commutation (as would a conditional tacked onto a commutation).

In the event that a pardon is blocked, overturned, overruled, nullified, or otherwise stopped from taking effect for any reason, it'll have no effect on the resolution of this question - it'll still resolve YES.

  • Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Grant a full, complete and unconditional pardon to all other individuals convicted of offenses related to events that occurred at or near the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021

    • En masse resolves YES. Specific individuals can still resolve YES, but doesn't yet.

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opened aṀ30 YES at 24% order

@MalachiteEagle are there news?

@Marnix Wow. I picked JUST the wrong time to add this one, huh. They're saying he's going to pardon Blagojevich.

@Marnix lol same

@Marnix "No one" resolves No.

reposted

He did 23 people prosecuted under the FACE act today. Unfortunately, none were on this list!

"grant a full, complete and unconditional pardon to all other individuals convicted of offenses related to events that occurred at or near the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021"

En masse resolves yes. Specific individuals can still resolve yes if any j6er specifically not pardoned here is pardoned later.

Check out this market to bet on what Trump will say in Year 1 https://manifold.markets/Houston2025/what-words-or-phrases-will-trump-sa

bought Ṁ10 NO

Aren't the two rioters options meant to be mutually exclusive? How are they both at 70%?

@ProjectVictory Not necessarily - he could pardon a group of them (such as "any january 6th protestor who didn't take a plea deal") and then pick off specific ones as well (such as a posthumous pardon for Ashli Babbitt)

opened a Ṁ5 YES at 5% order

@Bayesian that would be hilarious actually

@ProjectVictory it's at 16% on polymarket. wild

Is he even allowed to pardon himself?

@quadruple We don't actually know! That'll be a question for the Supreme Court if he tries it - but if he tries it, even if it fails, I'm resolving it YES

reposted

Well, it looks like Trump is going to be president again. What will he do in his first hundred days?

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