
Which of these voting-related ballot measures will pass in 2024?
Which of these voting-related ballot measures will pass in 2024?
6
110Ṁ90resolved Nov 21
Resolved
YESDC - Init. 83 - Establish ranked-choice voting for elections in DC
Resolved
NOID - Prop 1 - Establish top-four primaries and ranked-choice voting for federal, state, and some local offices
Resolved
NONV - Question 3 - Establish top-five primaries and ranked-choice voting for federal and state offices
Resolved
NOOR - Measure 117 - Establish ranked-choice voting for federal and state offices
Resolved
NOSD - Amend. H - Establish top-two primaries for federal, state, and some local offices
Resolved
NOMT - CI-126 - Establish top-four primaries
Resolved
NOMT - CI-127 - Require an electoral system where candidates must win a majority of the vote rather than a plurality
Resolved
NOAZ - Prop 133 - Require partisan primary elections, banning top-two, top-four, and top-five primaries
Resolved
NOAZ - Prop 140 - Require nonpartisan primary elections, and require candidates in general elections win a majority of votes
Resolved
NOCO - Prop 131 - Establish top-four primaries and ranked-choice voting for federal and state offices
Resolved
NOAK - Ballot Measure 2 - Repeal the ranked-choice voting system adopted in 2020
Ballot initiatives on ranked choice voting and nonpartisan ballots (which can lead to adoption of ranked-choice voting) are both on the ballot in six states each. Where will they pass?
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Ballot Measure 2 has failed by 664 votes. https://alaskapublic.org/2024/11/20/alaskas-ranked-choice-repeal-measure-fails-by-664-votes/
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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