How many rounds in the Democratic NYC mayoral primary?
2
250Ṁ89
Jun 23
6.45 rounds
expected
4%
1
4%
2
4%
3
4%
4
9%
5
16%
6
19%
7
17%
8
21%
9 or more

In ranked choice voting, votes are tallied, and if no one reaches 50%, they remove whoever has the fewest votes and redistribute them based on whoever their next choice was. How many times will this happen before a candidate wins? There are 11 candiates on the ballot, meaning there will be at most 10 rounds before someone reaches 50% - but Andrew Cuomo is already polling around 30% in the first round, and Mamdani comes closer in later rounds. Will Mamdani manage to pull through late? Or will it be an easy Cuomo sweep?

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy