Two Republicans voted against Trump's "Big Beautiful" bill: Thomas Massie (who has announced he's retiring after this term), and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA). Fitzpatrick sits in a VERY swingy swing seat (PA-1, which is D+1 according to Cook). On the one hand, voting against this may get him some good grace from the temperamental PA swing voter — but Trump hates a defector, and as head of the Republican party can make it very painful to do so. Will he? Or will he let bygones be bygones?

This market resolves YES if Brian Fitzpatrick loses his primary or announces he won't run for reelection. It resolves NO if he wins his primary. It is not affected if he changes parties.

This market will resolve N/A if Fitzpatrick dies, or if he announces his intentions to run for something else (such as the 2026 PA gubernatorial race). If he drops out but "leaves the door open to a 2026 run," this market will give him 1 day to shut that door before resolving YES.