This question resolves "yes" if at least three major news outlets and/or the Russian Federation and/or U.S. or U.K. intelligence agencies report an escalation of violence that has resulted in more than 50 deadly incidents on any side by 31st December 2022, 23:59
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ101 | |
| 2 | Ṁ24 | |
| 3 | Ṁ15 | |
| 4 | Ṁ10 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
This is looking very unlikely.
First off, my baseline rate for "at least 50 deaths" given "protests in a specific sub-national jurisdiction make the Western news" is quite a bit lower than 14%.
Second, the protests seem to have dispersed around the end of September, because the local government backed down.
So for this to happen, (1) something new would have to happen to spark more protests, (2) those protests would have to be in Dagestan (one of ~80 federal subjects of Russia), (3) the government would have to respond with deadly force, rather than reconciliation or silence, and (4) the resulting violence would have to result in a rather large number of deaths. Seems unlikely.