Will a police incident lead to widespread protests in the US in 2024?
Nov 6

In both 2016 and 2020, news coverage of police shootings of African Americans increased significantly, elevating the racial justice movement prior to national elections. In other years, that coverage decreased significantly, despite the number of police shootings of African Americans remaining largely constant since 2015.

This question aims to test whether the racial justice movement and confrontations with police become more salient in an election year like 2024, and the role of the media in amplifying it.

Resolution Criteria:

  1. The event must involve an African American and U.S. law enforcement. Law enforcement includes local, state, and federal police, FBI, ICE, ATF, you name it. It does not include non-US border patrol and law enforcement. The victim is considered African American for the purpose of this market if the protest or media coverage mentions that they're African American or black.

  2. The event does not have to be a shooting. If protests erupt nationwide as a result of an IRS audit of an African American, that counts.

  3. The protests have to be in response to the event. For example, if "Stop the Steal" rallies are already planned in Atlanta and a police shooting occurs the day before, it won't count.

  4. The protests have to mention the event, but can also be about other topics. Media coverage of the protest has to mention the event. If Biden rallies are already planned, and a police shooting occurs the day before, and they decide to make incorporate it into the rally messaging, it counts. Similarly, if pro-Palestine rallies happen and invoke a recent police shooting (and this is mentioned in media coverage of the rallies), it counts.

  5. The protests must occur in at least five states. Similar to 2016 and 2020.

  6. Each protest needs to be covered by at least three video sources, of which at least one has to be a "mainstream" media source like CNN, NBC, Fox, or NYT. Rumble and other sites are not mainstream, but count as video sources.

  7. The victim cannot already have been a celebrity. If Drake gets arrested and it leads to protests, it doesn't count. Celebrity means profiled in a major non-local news outlet prior to the event (so George Floyd's IMBD page doesn't count).

All of these criteria being fulfilled will result in the question resolving YES. All other outcomes will result in NO. This question will not resolve N/A. I won't particpate either.

Submit evidence in the comments.

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The Columbia University incident is interesting. It almost fulfills all the criteria, but the only African American in the news who was arrested was Ilhan Omar’s daughter, which disqualifies her due to celebrity criterion #7. I would be buying yes though, this seems like a matter of time.

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