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MANIFOLD
Which of the following swing district House reps will win reelection in 2024?
25
Ṁ2.8kṀ20k
resolved Dec 4
Resolved
YES
Don Bacon (R-NE)
Resolved
YES
Jared Golden (D-ME)
Resolved
YES
David Valadao (R-CA)
Resolved
YES
Bryan Steil (R-WI)
Resolved
YES
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA)
Resolved
YES
Mike Lawler (R-NY)
Resolved
YES
Scott Perry (R-PA)
Resolved
YES
Ken Calvert (R-CA)
Resolved
YES
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA)
Resolved
YES
Zach Nunn (R-IA)
Resolved
YES
Gabe Vasquez (D-NM)
Resolved
YES
Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX)
Resolved
YES
Eli Crane (R-AZ)
Resolved
YES
Tom Kean (R-NJ)
Resolved
YES
Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL)
Resolved
YES
Dina Titus (D-NV)
Resolved
YES
Susie Lee (D-NV)
Resolved
YES
Steven Horsford (D-NV)
Resolved
YES
John James (R-MI)
Resolved
NO
John Duarte (R-CA)

Based on AP race calls.

Market context
US Politics
Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
2024 US Election
US Congressional Elections 2024
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We really should have an answer to this by Thanksgiving. This is getting absurd.

@MarkHamill Will you extend the market close date until the last race is called?

@HenryRodgers Sigh. I guess I have to.

If you want specific action on Duarte I have just the market for you: https://manifold.markets/dlin007/will-john-duarte-ca13-be-reelected

God i hate being right 😭

reposted

I think No on the 3 NV names is currently a steal.

even with the recent polling showing him down 9 points i refuse to believe it's possible scott perry loses this

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