Which of the following California counties will Nikki Haley win in the March 5 Republican primary? (Multiple choice)
➕
Plus
58
Ṁ20k
resolved Mar 16
Resolved
NO
Contra Costa
Resolved
NO
San Francisco
Resolved
NO
Santa Clara
Resolved
NO
Los Angeles
Resolved
NO
Orange
Resolved
NO
San Diego
Resolved
NO
Alameda
Resolved
NO
San Mateo
Resolved
NO
Monterey
Resolved
NO
Santa Cruz
Resolved
NO
Marin

Inspired by this tweet:

Based on NYT results. In the event of any uncertainty, I’ll use the county or state sites to resolve.

Feel free to add other counties of interest.

It takes a while for California to count votes, so don’t expect a resolution until a couple of days after the primary if it’s within a few points.

#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 US Politics
#Trump
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#California
#California Politics
#2024 Republican Primaries
#‍️ Nikki Haley
#Super Tuesday
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
2 Comments
55 Holders
319 Trades
Sort by:

I am resolving the mathematically eliminated counties using the formula (1/% counted)-1 and adding that (all of the uncounted vote according to NYT) to Haley’s total to see if she’s still below Trump.

bought Ṁ5 San Mateo NO

2016 results might be instructive, since the race was uncontested at that point. So any non Trump vote share is a protest vote. https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/california

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules