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Will direct passenger ferry service between mainland Taiwan and mainland China resume by end of 2026?”
1
Ṁ100Ṁ40
Dec 30
11%
chance

The only direct ferry link between Taiwan proper and mainland China was the Pingtan-Taichung/Taipei service, running from 2011 until COVID suspension in February 2020. It has not resumed since. The Mini Three Links ferries (Kinmen/Matsu to Fujian) do not count for this question.

In April 2026, KMT chair Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) is visiting China for talks with Chinese leadership, raising the question of whether any tangible cross-strait concessions will follow.

Resolves YES if any direct passenger ferry between a port on Taiwan proper and a port on mainland China completes at least one sailing before January 1, 2027, with approval from Taiwan’s government. Resolves NO otherwise.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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