Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Peter Dutton loses his seat of Dickson in the 2025 Australian federal election. The official results, as declared by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), will be used to determine the outcome. If Dutton retains his seat, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

Peter Dutton has represented the Division of Dickson in Queensland since 2001. In the 2022 federal election, he secured victory with a narrow margin, obtaining 51.7% of the two-party preferred vote, reflecting a 3.9% swing against him. (kangaroocourtofaustralia.com)

In the lead-up to the 2025 election, Dutton faces competition from multiple candidates:

• Ali France (Labor Party): France has contested the seat in previous elections and is running again in 2025. (kangaroocourtofaustralia.com)

• Ellie Smith (Independent): A community-backed independent candidate, Smith has garnered significant local support, with over 200 volunteers involved in her campaign. (kangaroocourtofaustralia.com)

The 2025 federal election is scheduled for May 3, 2025. Recent polling indicates a competitive race, with the Coalition, led by Dutton, projected to gain seats nationally. However, the outcome in individual electorates like Dickson remains uncertain. (abc.net.au)

Considerations:

• Electoral Dynamics: Dickson is considered a marginal seat, and the presence of a strong independent candidate alongside the traditional party contenders could influence the vote distribution.

• National Trends vs. Local Factors: While national polls provide a general outlook, local issues and candidate profiles can significantly impact results in individual electorates.

• Voter Sentiment: Factors such as Dutton's leadership of the opposition, his policy positions, and his performance as a local member may affect voter decisions in Dickson.

Traders should monitor official AEC announcements and reputable news sources for updates on the election results to inform their positions in this market.