Will the US rescue at least one American hostage from Hamas by Oct 31?
resolved Oct 23

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one American hostage currently held by Hamas is rescued by the U.S. by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A rescue is defined as a successful operation or negotiation that results in the release and safe return of an American hostage. The rescue operation or negotiation must be attributed to the U.S. and be verifiable through reliable sources, such as verified news outlets or official U.S. government statements.

If a rescue operation results in the return of at least one American hostage before the expiry date, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

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predicted NO

The US did not rescue any hostages.

predicted YES

@SamMollica get dabbed on

I consider this statement from the White House to be enough to resolve this question Yes. The statement comes from the US government and attributes the release of the hostages to themselves. It was difficult to tell before given that news statements were saying that it was Qatar etc. and so I left the market open. I also didn't have the time to read in dept before and clearly by market volatility, there was disagreement.

I currently have the market closed and want to wait for the polymarket market to resolve. Unless people think i should do otherwise.

If the resolution criteria is actually a proxy for a separate market on a different website, that website should be linked in the description and mentioned in the header, even if the text is otherwise the same.

@Panfilo It isn't a proxy because I want to resolve the market myself. It is heavily influenced though. From now on though, I anticipate just creating my own markets. This market had a big flaw of "attributed to the U.S." which is grey. It is better to just make it on the specific American hostages

This market was a lesson to me in making markets to capture an event to make it on things that will more clearly occur.

@MarcusAbramovitch I must publicly apologize for being so tough on you in my comments. Your statement here clearly reflects your thoughtful intelligence, extracting a lesson from what I contributed (attribution, anyone?) to making a war zone here. Well done!

I did not participate in your market resolution, but I learned from you that you can have an interim between closing a market and resolving it. That’s useful, and given the circumstances…Wise move.

predicted NO

omg it’s back up again lol

@ItzNetwork ye rip

Hi guys, I'm currently travelling and have had little time to tend to this market. That said, assume I will resolve it like Polymarket

I think there is a lot I need to read. I can also close this market early and read things

predicted YES


sold Ṁ215 of NO

guy cuts down a tree with an axe

NOs: the axe felled the tree!

@gnome Axes don't cut down trees, people do.

predicted YES

If you want to see a detailed discussion on the Polymarket market, check out the UMA discord. It's chaotic, but can be meaningful.

I am interested to know what Hamas got in return, if anything.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@MarcusAbramovitch Can we get a comment on what would resolve this market YES and what is currently missing for that? Let's stop the annoying drama in the comments.

bought Ṁ95 of YES

@Shump ☝️🤓

@Shump What’s annoying is the dithering and mute market maker. Zero explanation of the hold up

sold Ṁ371 of YES

Rip my Mana I'm out. I must have misread something.

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