🏅 Top traders

@Austin Do any trades other than this one even matter?

@funny shooter 2 The fact that this was trading at 5% (essentially the risk free rate for 7 months away) fascinates me as a fascinating fact.

@WaltersShane I don't think this should trade at the risk free rate. This seems like something they might do

manifold airdrop 👀

Are you using a strict, financial definition of equity?

@RobertCousineau Yes. Shares or something similar. I'll make another one with less strict criteria though.

Plot twist: Austin gives people equity for the mana. Uses mana to buy equity when they announce that you can buy shares in Manifold with mana and becomes a Nancy Pelosi level insider trader.

I’d add “investment, advice, a board seat, or working at Manifold”

I find it interesting that this was trading at 5% (basically the risk free rate for 7 months away). Manifold, to their credit, is very willing to experiment with obvious ideas that seem good that for some reason aren't the norm.

@MarcusAbramovitch I am that skeptical that they would give actual equity away, in the sense of getting an entry in the cap table. They might give mana away, or sell mana-paying shares in a trading bot, or many other things; but not actual equity. It would just be busywork to set up, for a token amount that wouldn't be incentive alignment unless the receiver was irrational.

My impression is the main thing they value is DAUs. So any equity grant isn't going to be for general participation, but for referring thousands of users, like memestiny. But somebody who's trading, making high-quality markets, writing valuable forecasting-relevant comments, etc. probably isn't going to get anything. All that's an aside to driving users.

If somebody referred 10k engaged users, they'd probably get a grant.

@Mira i agree they probably won't. I don't think it's crazy though and they've done things like publish all equity and salaries and finances which I think is both smart and rare

I think someone like @jack would be a decent first candidate