Will Hamas continuously be in power in Gaza until Dec 15th?
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resolved Dec 16
Resolved
YES

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas is still recognized as the primary governing authority in the Gaza Strip by Dec 15, 2023. "Primary governing authority" is defined as Hamas having predominant political and military control in the Gaza Strip. If at any time prior to the expiry date, Hamas is no longer recognized as the primary governing authority, the market will resolve to "No". In case of shared governance or significant disruptions, the group or authority with the majority of control will be considered the primary governing authority. This market will resolve according to credible reporting.

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predicted YES

The international community won’t let them do anything sufficient to actually defeat hamas so the most likely outcome is a long stalemate just like the proxy wars in Syria and Ukraine and Libya. The international community is great at providing the weaker side with just enough support to prolong the agony. That’s basically the modal outcome for any conflict the international community meddles in.

predicted YES

Will you use area controlled to determine who has the majority of control?

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