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I have learned my lesson previously around copying Polymarket questions and just blanket using those criteria (though after the creation of this question). I am going to do my best here to resolve the question fairly. I understand that ambiguities exist here.

I have said the following things (and I realize that some are slightly contradictory).
1. The following things count:
A small population only, only a subset of the population, only for a short time and then closed again, if the border is open but hard to use, if only Palestinians with American citizenship.

2. The following don't count:
Border guards spontaneously pull people 100 people across, Egypt only lets those with family Egypt.

Based on this, it appears to me that yes, Egypt did open it's borders, if only for Palestinians with certain citizenship or "only for a subset of the population" even if that is just wounded Palestinians.

Does anyone have a good counterargument as to why this shouldn't resolve yes?

Note: I will keep the markets closed and wait 24h to hear a counterargument.

@AviSchwartz has the strongest YES argument. If you consider all Palestinians as “Palestinian Refugees,” which technically many are (refugees from the original Gaza war), then Egypt has already opened its borders to them, and whether or not they are medical evacuees or not does not matter, they are all “Palestinian Refugees” allowed to cross the border.

But the lowercase “refugees” could imply that they are refugees from the current conflict.

@MarcusAbramovitch Why close the market?

@Emanuele98 I've given a proposed resolution and I want to hear if people think i should do otherwise. I don't want it to just be trading on my comments

@MarcusAbramovitch More than anything else is that you block Mana for a day for a 3% gain (leaving out what he randomly bought No, but it would soon return to 97%).

I closed this market (and the one for Dec 15) to comment a few things

The Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt opened for the first time since fighting broke out between Palestinian militants and Israel earlier in October for limited evacuations of dual citizens from Gaza. Hundreds of people gathered at the checkpoint along the Gaza border before entering Egypt. Around 500 people were allowed to leave Gaza into Egypt, with others stranded. Ambulances carried the wounded and sick out of the strip for treatment in Egyptian hospitals

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2023/nov/02/rafah-border-crossing-opens-for-limited-evacuations-of-foreign-nationals-video

@MarcusAbramovitch Curious why this has not resolved yet?

@Predict only foreign passport holders and a select few injured Palestinians have been permitted to leave, but not uninjured palestinian civilians.

@BTE True, but is it clear by the resolution criteria that it has to be uninjured civilians? Wouldn’t dual passport or injured Palestinians count as “Palestinian refugees”?

@BTE OP has already established that opening the crossing for injured Palestinians would be a factor in resolving this market.

https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-egypt-open-its-border-for-pale-652687f0c43c#9pCZUTMVZ2a60AZR4I5w

Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov15?

96% chance. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Egypt opens its border with Gaza for Palestinian refugees by November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The "Yes" criterion include the opening of the Rafah border crossing for refugees, the creation of a humanitarian corridor, or any other mechanism which intends to allow the passage of Palestinian refugees directly into Egypt. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Egyptian government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

@Predict so far, no official source has called these medial evacuations “refugees.”

@AaronBreckenridge UNRWA defines Palestinian refugee as “persons whose normal place of residence was Palestine during the period 1 June 1946 to 15 May 1948, and who lost both home and means of livelihood as a result of the 1948 conflict.” 

The refugee status is extended by the UN to all descendants, which would include dual-citizens and the medical evacuees.

@AaronBreckenridge The only people being considered right now are ones with somewhere that is ready to repatriate them. The second a Gazan steps foot in another country the chances of them returning to Gazan again are almost zero. Like why isn't Saudi Arabia offering to take all 3 million to live in Neom!?!?

@AviSchwartz the original description says nothing about using that definition. Only that Egypt has to declare that it is allowing “refugees” to enter.

I exited this market when I saw that it would likely resolve differently than how I read the description.

I still haven’t seen any reports that claim Egypt refers to these medical evacuations as “refugees.”

@AviSchwartz This is a great point. Gaza is one huge refugee camp and has been for decades.

As of late Wednesday morning ET, 76 injured civilians had been taken by ambulance into Egypt and 335 foreign nationals were driven in buses through the crossing, according to Wael Abu Mohsen, head of communications for the Palestinian side of the crossing.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/first-civilians-leave-gaza-rafah-border-crossing-egypt-rcna123117

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-gaza-war-latest/card/egypt-ready-to-receive-severely-injured-palestinians-on-wednesday-lWvXWY8yIJdDdmVT2b2w
wsj reporting border will be opened Wednesday for wounded Palestinians

Egypt Ready to Receive Severely Injured Palestinians on Wednesday

Egypt will start receiving severely wounded Palestinians from Gaza starting Wednesday to receive treatment at special field hospitals in north Sinai, senior Egyptian officials said. The country will initially receive fewer than 100 Palestinians but the number is expected to rise to thousands in the

@RobertSutherland But not as refugees entering Egypt, only for medical treatment. Looks like OP said these would count, but not sure that is correct.

@Domer I think OP determines what is correct

@RobertSutherland Yeah we'll see if that stays his opinion! OP did not write this market, its copy/pasted from Polymarket which is currently figuring out if these medical evacuees count as refugees or not.

Sorry guys, didn't see these questions. I want to refer you to this comment on the identical market but for Dec 15. https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-egypt-open-its-border-for-pale-7b814c852a9a#vmm8ejByDXy5LyI611x1

@MarcusAbramovitch Will this resolve as YES if the border is opened for wounded Palestinians only?

@AviSchwartz I previously said that a small population counts and thus "wounded Palestinians" as long as it wasn't literally just 1 or 2 would count.

@MarcusAbramovitch I wasn’t really thinking about those as refugees, but more as medical evacuations. I.e. they patch you up and send you back. What happens if Egypt phrases it in that way? I.e. they don’t call them “refugees.”

@MarcusAbramovitch I agree that even a tiny number of refugees should count, but you are considering medical patients to be refugees? Seems like they're practically certain to be sent back to Gaza after they're treated (unless they've got a foreign passport).