This market will resolve to "Yes" if Egypt opens its border with Gaza for Palestinian refugees by December 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The "Yes" criterion include the opening of the Rafah border crossing for refugees, the creation of a humanitarian corridor, or any other mechanism which intends to allow the passage of Palestinian refugees directly into Egypt.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Egyptian government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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@Marnix Ugh, hate that these "live coverage" things never embed.
Looks like they're allowing dual nationals through, as well as allowing "seriously injured Palestinians" through to be treated at Egyptian hospitals. Does that resolve? https://www.ft.com/content/1bca1319-bbba-4b7c-9495-a089b07e3261
@Marnix So far, ambulances have brought 76 critically injured people and members of their families to Egypt from Gaza, said Wael Abu Mohsen, a spokesman for the Gaza side of the Rafah border crossing. Six buses carrying 335 other evacuees also left Gaza for Egypt today, he said.
I think this needs clearer resolution criteria. In particular, how does this market resolve if:
Egypt only lets a relatively small fraction of the population (<100,000) cross
a large number of people cross the border even though egypt didn't allow it
Egypt "opens" the border but the other circumstances prevent most people from using it
the border is only open to a subset of the population (say, women and children)
the border is opened for a short time and then closed again
@MarcusAbramovitch Thanks! For clarity on C, a hypothetical would be "egypt declared the border open, but the group in military control of the Gaza side of the border won't let people reach the border or cross"
@MarcusAbramovitch Thanks! And sorry to pester, I can just imagine that there's a big range of outcomes here. I'd like to determine what you'd consider a lower bound for resolving YES:
F) border guards spontaneously decide to pull 100 people through one day
G) Egypt lets Palestinians with family in Egypt across and 20 people complete the process to do it
And generally, is there a number for the situations above where your resolution would change to YES?
@Jwags this isn't in direct response to your question, I just had it written before so still want to post it. It's a response on C.
It's about Egypt opening the border (which is currently closed, honestly shocking how Egypt never gets pushback on this). If Hamas does its usual awful/terrorist stuff where they make life hard for the Palestinians, Egypt still did the thing.
I suppose there could be another question regarding conditional statements on this question being resolved yes.
@Jwags F and G are hard for me to say. My gut says No since that isn't an opening of the border. I guess the number has to be greater than 1000 or so but I didn't initially want to put a hard number on this. let me think about it
@MarcusAbramovitch Given these answers, am I correct in assuming that this would resolve YES if only Palestinians with an American citizenship are allowed to exit?