On October 24, Ben Armstrong (Bitboy) posted on X that his wife Bethany had served him divorce papers: https://twitter.com/BenArmstrongsX/status/1716835531265606069.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ben remarries by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be information from Ben Armstrong and his legal representatives. A consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
Bitboy is 41. According to the Pew Research Center about 63% of people that age remarry, and according to Goldberg Jones this gap usually takes 3.3 years. Since 2025 is a little over a year away which is much lower than the usual time gap, I'll estimate (1.1 year)/(3.3 years) * 63% = 21% or so.
Related questions
Will Taylor Swift get married by the end of 2025?
50% chance
Will Mrbeast be a billionaire by 2025
29% chance
Will I get married by the end of 2035?
35% chance
Will I be part of a wedding party before the end of 2025?
37% chance
Will Elon Musk get married (yet again) before 2028?
51% chance
Will I get married by 2027?
44% chance
Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?
50% chance
Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?
25% chance
Will I get married by 2035?
69% chance
Will Elon Musk get married again by the end of 2025?
24% chance