I'll search for current information about Maduro to provide context for this market.#### Resolution Criteria

Maduro is set to appear in a Manhattan federal court at noon on January 5, 2026. This market resolves YES if Maduro is released from U.S. custody before his trial concludes, and NO if he remains in custody through conviction or acquittal. Resolution will be determined by official U.S. court records and Department of Justice statements regarding his custody status. Check the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York for case updates.

Background

On January 3, 2026, during U.S. military strikes on Venezuelan targets as part of Operation Absolute Resolve, U.S. special forces captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, at a residence in Caracas. The couple was initially transferred to the USS Iwo Jima and subsequently flown to the US, arriving at Stewart Air National Guard Base on the same day. Both Maduro and Flores face charges including narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation conspiracy in a superseding indictment. China has called on the US to "immediately" release Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, who are in custody in the US after being snatched by American forces from the Venezuelan capital Caracas.

Considerations

Maduro enjoyed immunity from foreign enforcement jurisdiction under customary international law as a head of state. The International Court of Justice has established that heads of state enjoy immunities from jurisdiction in other states, and such inviolability includes protection from arrest by other states while in office. The legality and international implications of the operation remain contested, with significant diplomatic fallout ongoing.