Will the S&P 500 offer a REAL CAGR greater than 8% from 2024 until 2050?
US Politics•Inflation•Investing•S&P 500 Changes
12
70
Ṁ210
2050
48%
chance

To calculate the outcome of this event, we'll determine the REAL Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the S&P 500 using its opening value on the first trading day of 2024 and the first trading day of 2050 and the changes in the CPI between the two dates. Several factors could influence this outcome:

1. Inflation: As we're considering nominal returns, periods of high inflation could cause the stock market to rise without offering real returns.

2. Global Power Shifts: Changes in the global power balance may significantly impact market performance.

3. Global Catastrophes: Wars, pandemics, and similar events can drastically affect market stability and growth.

4. Technological Breakthroughs: Advances that increase productivity could lead to substantial market growth.

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predicts NO

I think it will look like the Nikkei 225. The stock market does not go up forever. GDP growth is unlikely to be higher than 2% per year from now to 2050 due to demographics.

what about dividends (reinvested?)

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