What will be the S&P 500 10-Year CAGR from 2025 to 2035?
What will be the S&P 500 10-Year CAGR from 2025 to 2035?
2
100Ṁ2412035
8%
Less than -3%
30%
-3% - 3%
23%
3% - 8%
23%
8% - 13%
16%
Greater than 13%
1%
This market predicts the range of the S&P 500's Compound Annual Growth Rate from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2035.
Results are rounded to nearest integer percent (e.g. 3.4% rounds to 3%, 3.5% rounds to 4%)
Resolution will be based on calculations using S&P 500 index values from reputable financial sources.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
How low will S&P500 go in 2025?
4,775
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2025?
82% chance
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2025?
Will S&P 500 increase in 2025?
36% chance
What will the S&P 500 returns be from 2024-11-01 to 2025-05-01 close?
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 20% in any quarter of 2025?
61% chance
Will the S&P 500 increase in each of the last three quarters of 2025?
16% chance
Will the S&P 500 offer a REAL CAGR greater than 8% from 2024 until 2050?
48% chance
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 10% in any quarter of 2025?
49% chance
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 20% in any quarter of 2025?
8% chance