If we automate every FIFA World Cup market and resolution, how many traders will @ManifoldSports have by the end?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ11kṀ27k

2027

6,108 people

expected

ALL

1.9%

Below 500

500-999

1,000-1,999

2,000-2,999

11%

3,000-3,999

14%

4,000-4,999

15%

5,000-5,999

18%

6,000-7,999

13%

8,000-10,000

14%

Over 10,000

Across ~104 matches, how many people will trade?

Imagine the following (non-binding):

1,000 liquidity for regular matches
10,000 liquidity for all finals
Markets auto-resolve quickly (within ~15 minutes) after they end
Markets are available and visible quickly/easily with a dedicated dashboard

Please share your thoughts in the comments!

Adding trader counts across all markets, meaning people who are a unique trader in multiple markets will be counted multiple times.

World Cup finals conclude July 19. If we don't have any markets posted on @ManifoldSports by June 15 (end of Manifest), I will N/A this market. There is currently a PR in review for backend functionality enabling batch market creation, auto-resolve, and auto-creation of markets for games at future stages of the WC. Once live, @ManifoldSports will generate the first round of official markets for all predetermined matchups.

First match is June 11, but the market will have a meaningfully different outcome if we start sooner vs later.

Follow @ManifoldSports for updates!

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1,000

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Will this simply resolve to the "Traders" number on @ManifoldSports's profile on July 19?

@4fa We'll add up the number of traders across all World Cup match markets by @ManifoldSports and resolve to that number after all matches are played/all markets resolve.