This market resolves YES if one or more of the following happens:
Texas votes for Harris
Florida votes for Harris
New Hampshire votes for Trump
Minnesota votes for Trump
If either Harris or Trump are somehow replaced as their party's nominee for any reason, this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee.
If none of these states flip, this market will resolve NO.
If the AP and Fox News both call all of these states in the presidential race and 48 hours pass without any retraction or relevant recounts being scheduled, this market will resolve based on those calls.
Otherwise, resolution will wait until the certification of the votes in January 2025. Any recounts after certification will not be considered.
Context:
1,000
1.00Possible arb with the following contracts:
(A) https://manifold.markets/bagelfan/will-kamala-harris-flip-a-state
(B) The option "At least one state" in https://manifold.markets/bagelfan/how-many-states-will-trump-flip-in
(C) https://manifold.markets/nikki/will-both-kamala-harris-and-donald
It is necessary* that
P(this resolves YES) β€ P(A resolves YES) + P(B resolves YES) - P(C resolves YES) β€ 1
At time of writing, market prices violate the second inequality!!
*barring weird edge cases on resolution