This is the Wikipedia article about the Rafah Offensive.

If this article unambiguously and consistently reports that Israel has escalated to a "full-scale" offensive/invasion/assault/etc before July, this market resolves YES. To do so would be a large update from the current article, which cites many sources distinguishing the current offensive from a "full-scale" offensive and only directly describes the operation as a "limited invasion".

As a point of comparison, language like the current Wikipedia article describing the overall invasion of the Gaza Strip would be sufficient for a YES resolution:

The Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip is an ongoing part of the Israel-Hamas war. Immediately after the 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel, Israel began the bombing of Gaza Strip and by October 27 Israel had launched a full-scale invasion.

This is intended to be a high bar. In any ambiguous situation, this market's resolution will err towards NO.

This market requires that both the escalation and the updates to the Wikipedia article to take place before July. If these conditions have not been met, this market resolves NO.

Wikipedia vandalism/edit wars will not impact this market's resolution. If the Wikipedia article is folded into another article, that article will be used for resolution instead.

This market's resolution will be based on the market creator's best judgement of Wikipedia's consensus, in consultation with other members of the Manifold community. Feel free to comment, DM, or ask the Manifold discord if you have any questions about the resolution criteria.

Clarifications to these criteria will be added as necessary to best match the spirit of the question. Your comments and predictions are always appreciated.