If Israel invades Rafah, will they have a reasonable plan for evacuating civilians from there?
1k
2025
38%
chance

A plan is considered reasonable if:-

  • If it allocates a considerable amount of additional space for housing these civilians, in addition to the current evacuation zone. At least 2/3 of the evacuated area in Rafah.

  • The safety of the civilians is guaranteed to a reasonable level in that area. It is not an active fighting area (as evidenced by ISW reports) and buildings don't regularly get bombed there (less than one bombing a week).

  • Alternatively, if these civilians are guaranteed a safe refuge outside of Gaza, that also counts, as long as their passage is indeed guaranteed (subject only to security checks) and the other conditions apply. Note that this is not an endorsement of this or any other solution, I am merely curious to see if the Israeli government comes up with a real plan.

Resolves N/A if the war ends or at the end of 2024, whichever is sooner, if an invasion hasn't occured.

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so far more than a million people evacuated safely, and more space has been allocated, minimal civilian casualties in the Rafah operation.
100K tents of 20 people has been delivered to the population.
and yet, some how the market is really low, how do you explain that?

bought Ṁ100 NO

Current plan seems to be “drop leaflets onto previously declared safe zones saying to go to increasingly small/open spaces”. Grim.

Any update on this?

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