This market resolves YES if California Proposition 1 (Authorizes Bonds for Housing Affordability Programs. Legislative Statute.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:

Simple majority of votes cast on the measure (Cal. Const. art. II §10(a); art. XVIII §4 for amendments). If conflicting measures both pass, the one with more yes votes prevails (art. II §10(b)).

Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.

What the votes mean (official summary):

• YES: The state could borrow $11.25 billion to support veterans and affordable housing.

• NO: The state could not borrow $11.25 billion to support veterans and affordable housing.

Results: resolves on the result certified by California Secretary of State (Statement of Vote, due by 38th day after election, i.e. 2026-12-11). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.

No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.

Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast.

Official source: https://voterguide.sos.ca.gov/propositions/1/