This market resolves YES if California Proposition 3 (Provides Permanent Funding for Schools and Health Care by Extending Existing Tax on High Incomes. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure (Cal. Const. art. II §10(a); art. XVIII §4 for amendments). If conflicting measures both pass, the one with more yes votes prevails (art. II §10(b)).
Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.
What the votes mean (official summary):
YES: An income tax increase on high-income earners in place since 2012 would become permanent instead of expiring in 2031.
NO: An income tax increase on high-income earners in place since 2012 would expire in 2031.
Results: resolves on the result certified by California Secretary of State (Statement of Vote, due by 38th day after election, i.e. 2026-12-11). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.
No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.
Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.
Starting probability: 75% is a starting seed, not a forecast. Basis: PPIC Statewide Survey, Sep 4-10 2026, 1,103 likely voters: 58/40/2 - https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/; Berkeley IGS Poll, Sep 15-20 2026, 4,512 likely voters: 54/34/13 - https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3w14s99c.
Official source: https://voterguide.sos.ca.gov/propositions/3/
1,000