This market resolves YES if California Proposition 2 (Increases State's Rainy Day Fund. Legislative Constitutional Amendment.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:

Simple majority of votes cast on the measure (Cal. Const. art. II §10(a); art. XVIII §4 for amendments). If conflicting measures both pass, the one with more yes votes prevails (art. II §10(b)).

Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.

What the votes mean (official summary):

• YES: Rules for building state budget reserves and paying down extra state debts would change; reserves would be higher and extra debt payments required for longer.

• NO: Rules for building state budget reserves and paying down extra state debts would not change.

Results: resolves on the result certified by California Secretary of State (Statement of Vote, due by 38th day after election, i.e. 2026-12-11). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.

No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.

Starting probability: 75% is a starting seed, not a forecast. Basis: PPIC Statewide Survey, Sep 4-10 2026, 1,103 likely voters: 60% yes / 39% no / 1% DK - https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/.

Official source: https://voterguide.sos.ca.gov/propositions/2/