This market resolves YES if Hawaii Question 2 (Directing the Hawaii State Legislature to Establish Procedures for Counties to Issue RISE Bonds, Exempt from County Debt Limits.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:

Majority of votes tallied on the question AND yes votes ≥50% of all ballots cast at the election (Haw. Const. art. XVII §3; blank/over votes effectively count against). Turnout-style rule: yes votes must be at least 50% of total ballots cast in the general election, not just of votes on the question.

Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.

What the votes mean (official summary):

• YES: Legislature must authorize counties to issue RISE bonds repaid solely from property-tax growth in designated districts, outside county debt limits.

• NO: No constitutional authorization for RISE bonds outside county debt limits.

Results: resolves on the result certified by Hawaii Chief Election Officer (Office of Elections). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.

No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.

Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast.

Official source: https://elections.hawaii.gov/voting/2026-proposed-amendments-to-the-hawaii-state-constitution/