Will Biden pass Trump in these swing states for any time before May 1st? (RCP)
Will Biden pass Trump in these swing states for any time before May 1st? (RCP)
39
2.2kṀ16k
resolved May 1
Resolved
YES
Pennsylvania
Resolved
NO
Michigan
Resolved
NO
Arizona
Resolved
NO
Georgia
Resolved
NO
North Carolina

This market resolves based on the RCP state-level polling averages for the 2-way race between Biden and Trump.

As of market creation on March 28th, the averages for the states listed are updated through March 26th and all show Trump in the lead.

If Biden is shown in the lead at any point in a state's polling average from March 26th to April 30th, that state resolves Yes. Otherwise, all remaining states resolve No after the graph is updated for April 30th.

As of market creation, these are the averages:

  • Pennsylvania - Trump +0.2 (Biden last lead March 11th)

  • Michigan - Trump +3.5 (Biden last lead October 3rd)

  • Arizona - Trump +5.2 (Biden has not lead since average began)

  • Georgia - Trump +5.2 (Biden has not lead since average began)

  • North Carolina - Trump +4.4 (Biden has not lead since average began)


See also:

Politics
US Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
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