Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
1,000
3.00Here's what I wrote about this race in the Manifold newsletter!
Texas: Colin Allred (D) vs. Sen. Ted Cruz (R)
Democrat win chances (Manifold, sweepstakes, 73 traders): 18%
Democrat win chances (Manifold, play-money, 130 traders): 17%
Expert forecasts: Lean R (Cook), Likely R (Sabato), Lean R (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): R+4; Cruz 48.8%, Allred 45.0%
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: R+2.5 (Cruz vs. O’Rourke)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: R+16 (Cruz vs. Sadler)
Recent Texas presidential election results: Trump+6 (2020), Trump+9 (2016), Romney+16 (2012)
Manifolder commentary:
Richard Hanania: I think if there’s one place [Republicans might lose seats], it’s Texas, where Ted Cruz is running against Colin Allred, a UC Berkeley School of Law graduate, member of the House, and former linebacker for the Tennessee Titans … I say Allred is underpriced, but my view is mostly vibes based. Polls that show a tight race report that Allred’s favorability is positive, while Cruz is underwater … I’m going to give Allred a 30% chance of pulling off the upset.
Cremieux: My first bet will be safe and not worth all that much: I think Ted Cruz is going to win reelection, and I'll throw $20 at it.
Harold Reasons: If there is a god ted Cruz will lose so we can get one that doesn't leave his voters everytime there is a disaster. Poop on cruz
Conflux commentary:
This is a cool election for me, because my friend’s mom worked on Colin Allred’s campaign when he was elected US representative in a 2018 upset victory. The same year, Beto O’Rourke waged a highly publicized campaign against the unpopular Ted Cruz for Senate (in an article from 2018, Clare Malone wrote “[O’Rourke has] gone on Ellen and The Late Show With Stephen Colbert, and has been compared to a Kennedy an embarrassing number of times in profiles … we’re in the midst of that self-mythologizing, magical moment for O’Rourke”) before running for president in 2020. Beto lost both races — the Senate race narrowly, the presidential race not so much.
Since 2018-Beto was such a good year for Democrats, can they really go beyond that in 2024 in order to do the unthinkable and win in Texas? They have a popular candidate, and the Republicans don’t. Democrats have proven, with Arizona, that they can sometimes win previously red states in the Southwest. But the fact is, Cruz is winning polls. Overall, I think a 20% chance is about right here, but there’s room for debate.